Ed, just returned from China and Vietnam and their embrace of the future and where they are headed is sadly eons ahead of the US. Pick a topic, healthcare - it is not what people think, embrace of AI, influx of well trained foreign doctors, making it a human right not a profit center unlike the US is mind boggling; electrification of public transit and adoption of EVs, very impressive. Banning social media and crypto, focusing inward on their own brands, culture, ideologies and expanding their exports to new records without the US is remarkable.
Is AI really the reason for layoffs in non-tech sectors? When it comes to coding there is no question the current abilities of the big models are nothing short of amazing. Play around with Claude Code and you get the sense of how autonomous agents will reshape the workforce and the economy. The current abilities of these models are more than enough to make AI related layoffs at OpenAi and Pinterest believable.
However when it comes to Dow Chemical and UPS I have my doubts. Dow specifically attributes the layoffs to AI and automation. It feels like they tossed AI in there because why not? What were those 4500 people doing that AI now can do? Coding? How many coders were in the 30,000 number from UPS?
A study titled APEX-Agents by Mercor released on Jan 27, 2026 sheds some light on the ability of the current models to perform common high value professional tasks. The results show not a single model is able to accurately complete tasks more than 24% of the time. This rate means no company would trust AI to complete these tasks. There is a high probability the models will reach levels of competence that will displace large segments of the workforce but we are nowhere close to those levels yet.
Despite anti-regulation sentiment in business and some of society, most of the things people value and benefit from in daily life exist because of regulation.
Safe food and medicine - The FDA approval process emerged after tragedies like the 1937 sulfanilamide disaster (107 deaths from untested medicine) and thalidomide birth defects. Before the Pure Food and Drug Act, products contained many undisclosed dangerous toxins.
Breathable air in cities - The Clean Air Act transformed American cities. Los Angeles in the 1970s had air so toxic that children couldn't play outside on bad days. Lead from gasoline damaged children's cognitive development nationwide. These regulations removed lead from gas, reduced smog, and prevents an estimated 200,000 early deaths annually.
Safe vehicles - Seatbelts, airbags, crumple zones, licensing, road designs and more weren't standard features automakers voluntarily added. Traffic fatalities per mile driven have dropped about 80% since the 1960s. The same applies to aircraft safety safety.
Financial system stability - Banking regulations like deposit insurance (FDIC) mean you don't lose your savings when a bank fails, unlike the thousands who did in the 1930s.
Workplace safety - OSHA reduced workplace fatality rates by roughly 65% since 1970.
Environmental protection - Rivers literally caught fire before the Clean Water Act.
**AI/DATA/CYBER - Opinion: NEW REGULATIONS ARE NEEDED FOR THESE NEW RISKS.
Yes regulations can become outdated and unnecessarily complex and we should seek to incrementally improve these. Overall regulations are a good thing, important and inevitable... it's just a matter of how much injury we as a society are willing to accept before eventually getting started.
I like your perspective, Ed. I definitely think that we need more data, and we need more studies into the true impact on the labor market in regards to AI. I work in engineering, specifically integration and automation, and AI is only as good as the people who understand how to use it. I believe that some companies are able to eliminate some jobs with AI and automation, but not all the jobs. Hence, I agree with your assessment that we need to have better data and studies into the impact of AI. Automation has been around for a long time (I have been building automation for years) and that doesn't always mean that jobs are lost. It usually means that resources get re-allocated to areas that need a "human-in-the-loop". I hope that your conference goes well, and that your focus on getting leaders to focus on the things that matter most (like the economy) land well.
Never be intimidated by the old fogies. You are there because the world has changed and they haven’t a clue what they are up against. You grew up along side technology they were forced to adapt to. They just want to know how to make more money off this latest iteration. Here’s a clue. Rapid deployment of monoculture caused the dust bowl which supercharged the Great Depression. Nothing has changed since then, no matter how confusing the headlines. AI is just another land grab.
Ed, i agree with your post and i find it smart, this is why it bothers me what you wrote at beginning: “AI is being used as excuse for layoffs”: undeniably true. we all agree with it.
“AI is the reason for layoffs”: well… how can you say that?
I’m blessed with working for large tech companies and AI usage is pushed hard, there are countless trainings, incentives, etc… the tech is exciting, you can clearly see the incredibly fast progress but… it doesn’t help much, as of today. it’s quite difficult to get significant productivity gains with current tech and while I can see there might be a future in which this happens, it’s not today.
Maybe companies are decreasing costs, ehm laying off employees, because they are preparing for the future or , perhaps, because they can simply afford to do it and increase profits. pre-pandemic period was crazy in terms of growth, low interest rates, strong stock market, cost of growing company size was relatively smaller, now they reaped the benefits of that growth with strong profits and… well, they don’t need all those people anymore, they can bank on what they built 5 years ago and… wait to see what will happen with ai or other stuff. I think layoffs are more a byproduct of increased cost of money than ai. we’ll see.
Thanks for the intelligent argument backed with cogent data. One downstream aspect. Many of the jobs that will not be immediately as affected are low wage, physical labor ones, the types labeled “essential” during Covid. Folks in these jobs live so closely to the economic edge, they can never afford to question or complain. As more “information” jobs are supplanted by AI, more former white collar workers will likely be forced into this dystopian dynamic. In the West, our capital has long been creativity. Here’s hoping there are creative folks envisioning alternative futures.
I’d be curious to learn more about what you think of the FUD strategy. The hot/cold, “flooding the zone” approach keeps everyone on their toes. When we’re all in fight or flight, or honestly frozen in fear, we’re easier to control. What’s your analysis of Trump’s marketing/PR strategy and how that’s impacting the markets? Have you considered that beyond the Libertarian Mind Virus that lawmakers could be at a loss for how to act, given they’re experiencing the same things we are (no time to actually think)?
The 2026 election should honestly be totally focused on AI. Whether we should regulate or not. It is the most important thing in our lives today. The mass distraction 80-20 issues really should not matter when it comes to god technology, displacement of workers & loss of meaning in ones life. Let's see what people run on. If you were smart you would have a pro regulation approach because majority of people do not like AI right now. It does not help that the major companies advancing AI are also already not liked.
Ed, just returned from China and Vietnam and their embrace of the future and where they are headed is sadly eons ahead of the US. Pick a topic, healthcare - it is not what people think, embrace of AI, influx of well trained foreign doctors, making it a human right not a profit center unlike the US is mind boggling; electrification of public transit and adoption of EVs, very impressive. Banning social media and crypto, focusing inward on their own brands, culture, ideologies and expanding their exports to new records without the US is remarkable.
Is AI really the reason for layoffs in non-tech sectors? When it comes to coding there is no question the current abilities of the big models are nothing short of amazing. Play around with Claude Code and you get the sense of how autonomous agents will reshape the workforce and the economy. The current abilities of these models are more than enough to make AI related layoffs at OpenAi and Pinterest believable.
However when it comes to Dow Chemical and UPS I have my doubts. Dow specifically attributes the layoffs to AI and automation. It feels like they tossed AI in there because why not? What were those 4500 people doing that AI now can do? Coding? How many coders were in the 30,000 number from UPS?
A study titled APEX-Agents by Mercor released on Jan 27, 2026 sheds some light on the ability of the current models to perform common high value professional tasks. The results show not a single model is able to accurately complete tasks more than 24% of the time. This rate means no company would trust AI to complete these tasks. There is a high probability the models will reach levels of competence that will displace large segments of the workforce but we are nowhere close to those levels yet.
Link to the study: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.14242
Despite anti-regulation sentiment in business and some of society, most of the things people value and benefit from in daily life exist because of regulation.
Safe food and medicine - The FDA approval process emerged after tragedies like the 1937 sulfanilamide disaster (107 deaths from untested medicine) and thalidomide birth defects. Before the Pure Food and Drug Act, products contained many undisclosed dangerous toxins.
Breathable air in cities - The Clean Air Act transformed American cities. Los Angeles in the 1970s had air so toxic that children couldn't play outside on bad days. Lead from gasoline damaged children's cognitive development nationwide. These regulations removed lead from gas, reduced smog, and prevents an estimated 200,000 early deaths annually.
Safe vehicles - Seatbelts, airbags, crumple zones, licensing, road designs and more weren't standard features automakers voluntarily added. Traffic fatalities per mile driven have dropped about 80% since the 1960s. The same applies to aircraft safety safety.
Financial system stability - Banking regulations like deposit insurance (FDIC) mean you don't lose your savings when a bank fails, unlike the thousands who did in the 1930s.
Workplace safety - OSHA reduced workplace fatality rates by roughly 65% since 1970.
Environmental protection - Rivers literally caught fire before the Clean Water Act.
**AI/DATA/CYBER - Opinion: NEW REGULATIONS ARE NEEDED FOR THESE NEW RISKS.
Yes regulations can become outdated and unnecessarily complex and we should seek to incrementally improve these. Overall regulations are a good thing, important and inevitable... it's just a matter of how much injury we as a society are willing to accept before eventually getting started.
I like your perspective, Ed. I definitely think that we need more data, and we need more studies into the true impact on the labor market in regards to AI. I work in engineering, specifically integration and automation, and AI is only as good as the people who understand how to use it. I believe that some companies are able to eliminate some jobs with AI and automation, but not all the jobs. Hence, I agree with your assessment that we need to have better data and studies into the impact of AI. Automation has been around for a long time (I have been building automation for years) and that doesn't always mean that jobs are lost. It usually means that resources get re-allocated to areas that need a "human-in-the-loop". I hope that your conference goes well, and that your focus on getting leaders to focus on the things that matter most (like the economy) land well.
You've argued that a 20,000 word essay might not be the best way to communicate concerns about AI to most people. Maybe a 5 minute webcomic?
thelastcomic.com
Excellent post Ed. I really enjoy reading your column and love your podcast. Keep up the good work.
I like your column Ed. Please note Congress doesn't sign legislation they pass it. The C oC graphic is wrongly titled
Never be intimidated by the old fogies. You are there because the world has changed and they haven’t a clue what they are up against. You grew up along side technology they were forced to adapt to. They just want to know how to make more money off this latest iteration. Here’s a clue. Rapid deployment of monoculture caused the dust bowl which supercharged the Great Depression. Nothing has changed since then, no matter how confusing the headlines. AI is just another land grab.
Ed, i agree with your post and i find it smart, this is why it bothers me what you wrote at beginning: “AI is being used as excuse for layoffs”: undeniably true. we all agree with it.
“AI is the reason for layoffs”: well… how can you say that?
I’m blessed with working for large tech companies and AI usage is pushed hard, there are countless trainings, incentives, etc… the tech is exciting, you can clearly see the incredibly fast progress but… it doesn’t help much, as of today. it’s quite difficult to get significant productivity gains with current tech and while I can see there might be a future in which this happens, it’s not today.
Maybe companies are decreasing costs, ehm laying off employees, because they are preparing for the future or , perhaps, because they can simply afford to do it and increase profits. pre-pandemic period was crazy in terms of growth, low interest rates, strong stock market, cost of growing company size was relatively smaller, now they reaped the benefits of that growth with strong profits and… well, they don’t need all those people anymore, they can bank on what they built 5 years ago and… wait to see what will happen with ai or other stuff. I think layoffs are more a byproduct of increased cost of money than ai. we’ll see.
At minimum, all AI content should display a watermark/logo affirming the use of artificial intelligence in its creation. ALL
Thanks for the intelligent argument backed with cogent data. One downstream aspect. Many of the jobs that will not be immediately as affected are low wage, physical labor ones, the types labeled “essential” during Covid. Folks in these jobs live so closely to the economic edge, they can never afford to question or complain. As more “information” jobs are supplanted by AI, more former white collar workers will likely be forced into this dystopian dynamic. In the West, our capital has long been creativity. Here’s hoping there are creative folks envisioning alternative futures.
I’d be curious to learn more about what you think of the FUD strategy. The hot/cold, “flooding the zone” approach keeps everyone on their toes. When we’re all in fight or flight, or honestly frozen in fear, we’re easier to control. What’s your analysis of Trump’s marketing/PR strategy and how that’s impacting the markets? Have you considered that beyond the Libertarian Mind Virus that lawmakers could be at a loss for how to act, given they’re experiencing the same things we are (no time to actually think)?
The 2026 election should honestly be totally focused on AI. Whether we should regulate or not. It is the most important thing in our lives today. The mass distraction 80-20 issues really should not matter when it comes to god technology, displacement of workers & loss of meaning in ones life. Let's see what people run on. If you were smart you would have a pro regulation approach because majority of people do not like AI right now. It does not help that the major companies advancing AI are also already not liked.
Might this actually be a net neutral with the Baby Boomers leaving the workforce?